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A prescription for GOP victory

March 15, 2016 By Sean

With Trump’s victories in Florida and Illinois (and elsewhere), it’s time for Republicans to think more seriously about a plan B. Fortunately, there is a prescription for an unusual, but feasible Republican win in November by a candidate not named Trump: the House-made president. Active ingredients: three candidates, no clear majority, a critical state victory, and a willing (if cynical) House of Representatives.

The Constitution provides that the electoral college produce a winner with a clear majority, otherwise the House gets to select from among the top three candidates with electoral college votes. The GOP can do this! They can force a House-made president!

The three candidates requirement is easy. The fevered dream of a brokered convention is unlikely, but would probably result in Trump running as a 3d-party candidate. Given the other constitutional requirements of the House-made president (at least one state win and no candidate with a majority), it might be easier to just let Trump carry the GOP standard. The House-made president plan fails if Trump reacts to a brokered convention by not running. And, Trump might not win any states as a 3d-party candidate. The establishment wing should pick its own guy (and, of course, it will be a guy) as a breakaway, 3d-party candidate.

Most importantly, giving Trump the GOP nomination allows the GOP establishment to focus on the toughest requirement: denying the Democrat a majority. Obama won in 2012 with 303 electoral votes, 33 more than the 270 majority threshold. Let’s stipulate that the Democrat won’t win any states Obama did not win in 2012. The combination of Trump and the establishment candidate would need to beat the Democrat in enough states Obama won to deny the Democrat 270 electoral votes (without Trump hitting 270).

The good news is that, to execute the House-made president plan, this 3d-party candidate would not have to go through the motions of a full national campaign. He could focus exclusively on a few large swing states, while Trump and the Democrat spread themselves across all 50. Meet those persnickety ballot requirements in just a handful of states: Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and maybe Virginia (13). Pour money into those states. Spend every waking minute of every day between the convention and the election campaigning in just those states. Heck, it wouldn’t even have to be a single candidate. Find an anti-Trump favorite son in each state. (NB: Kasich a possibility for Ohio, Bush and Rubio not viable in Florida.) Just win those states at any cost.

If it all works out, both the Democrat and Trump are shy of 270 electoral votes. At least one breakaway GOP candidate has won a state. The lack of a majority forces a House runoff. The House GOP, even less burdened by fealty to the democratic process than the Bush v. Gore Supreme Court and animated by fierce loathing of both Trump and either Benghazi Clinton or that Socialist Sanders, elects the breakaway candidate.

Boom! A Republican president not named Trump.

Warning, possible side effects include constitutional crisis.

 

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Comments

  1. mike_cote says

    March 16, 2016 at 3:56 am

    So your premise is suspect, I think.

    • Sean says

      March 16, 2016 at 11:02 am

      Fixed that.

  2. mvymvy says

    March 16, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    Massachusetts has enacted the National Popular Vote bill. When it goes into effect, it would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

    The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
    All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.

    The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

    http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

    • Sean says

      March 17, 2016 at 11:40 am

      But, the NPV won’t be in place by this November.

  3. Christopher says

    March 16, 2016 at 4:29 pm

    …and we have to look at the majority of each delegation since each state only gets one vote.

    • Sean says

      March 17, 2016 at 11:41 am

      I’ll do the math on the delegations later, but I’m pretty sure that more states are majority Republican.

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