“There is a lot at stake and people are scared, but we can’t choose a candidate we don’t believe in because we’re scared.”-
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Stanley Greenberg was the lead pollster behind the successful 1992 Clinton campaign. A long time political demographer, he was an expert on the Reagan Democrats in Macomb County Michigan which went 70-30 for Kennedy and 65-35 for Reagan just 20 years later. He performed a similar post-mortem after the 2016 campaigns when this reliable Obama county went for Trump.
What he has discovered in his new book, RIP GOP, is that a new coalition is emerging ready not only to win this election but radically remake American politics for a generation.
Class conflict helps elect Democrats and defeat Republicans
Greenberg suggests that Clinton erred by focusing too much on multiculturalism at the expense of class, and by trying to discredit Donald Trump as a vulgarian rather than a plutocrat.
But defending multicultural America helps Democrats not only with voters of color and young people, but upper income whites with college degrees who are now becoming vastly more Democratic than they were in 2016 and vastly more liberal on issues of immigration
That resolve to resist has led many voters to define their own beliefs in opposition to Trump’s. On immigration, for example, “every Trump outrage increased the proportion of Americans who said, ‘We are an immigrant country,’” writes Greenberg. Indeed, according to recent Pew data, 62 percent of Americans say that immigrants strengthen the country, while 28 percent, a near record low, see them as a burden.
This rising coalition is fired up and ready to go, and will turn out for anyone the Democrats nominate.
going into 2020, Greenberg believes that what he calls the “rising American electorate” — including millennials, people of color and single women — will ensure Democratic victory, almost regardless of whom the party nominates.
So it’s time for Biden and his supporters to stop running around like only their guy can beat Trump, and it’s time for the progressives to realize our base is at its most powerful when it’s turns out and staying home is simply not an option. Even if a guy like Biden does win the nomination. For now let’s focus our energy on helping the candidate we like in the primary win, and then we can all work together for the nominee.