We had a great time, four years ago, with our predictions for 2016. David was correct in predicting Donald Trump would win the GOP nomination, but nobody predicted either running mate, and nobody thought Trump would actually win the presidency.
Heading into 2020, a year drowning in uncertainty, the world is looking to the thoughtful and brilliant BMG community for guidance and expert prognostications. My advice: Given how crazy 2016 was, even the most unlikely prediction might come true.
2020 Elections:
If you are playing, name the tickets and the electoral vote total for the winner.
- Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire, prompting Michael Bloomberg to saturate television in an attempt to stop him. It only succeeds in drowning out the rest of the candidates, helping Bernie to win the nomination. Bernie surprises the convention by selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate, despite speculation that the VP nod will go to Stacey Abrams or Julian Castro.
- Enough Republican senators vote to subpoena witnesses in the impeachment trial, but they wrap themselves in executive privilege and the fifth amendment. Even though incriminating information continues to flow, the senate doesn’t vote to convict Donald Trump. Mike Pence remains on the ticket.
- A Texas rancher is killed by Federal agents, defending his property from eminent domain and approaching border wall construction. The resulting anger in Texas is directed against Donald Trump, joining Arizona in voting for the Sanders-Harris ticket. Trump carries Michigan and Wisconsin, but an energized base of African-American voters push the Democrats to victory in Georgia and North Carolina. Bernie beats Trump, 333-205.
- Doug Jones loses his Alabama senate seat, but outrage over the impeachment trial motivates Democratic gains in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Maine.
- Democrats gain seven House seats, Nancy Pelosi announces the 2021-22 congress would be her last as Speaker.
Massachusetts:
- There’s a record number of primaries for Democratic seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Progressive activists score big gains and succeed in replacing four members of House leadership, and Robert DeLeo announces he will not run for another term as speaker.
- The progressive wave in the September primary, along with multiple visits by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, pushes Ed Markey past Joe Kennedy after a statewide recount.
- The T doesn’t get any better, and the legislature does nothing to help.
- Media reports showing Maura Healey riding the T prompts speculation she is preparing a run for governor in 2022.
World:
- A back bench member of the Canadian parliament from Nova Scotia travels to Boston, and holds a press conference to propose legislation admitting the six New England states as Canadian provinces.
- Boris Johnson visits the White House, announces a massive free trade agreement between the UK and the United States. The deal dies in congress. The Pound sterling drops to parity with the US Dollar.
- After the UK exits the European Union, Scotland petitions for independence. Scotland sends an envoy to negotiate potential entry into the EU, even though Boris Johnson blocks any attempt for a referendum.
- Less than five days after the Senate votes down impeachment articles, Rudy Giuliani is named in an indictment by the Southern District of New York.
Sports and Entertainment
- The Patriots don’t make it to the AFC Championship game, and Tom Brady announces his retirement. San Francisco wins the Super Bowl.
- The Red Sox finish third in the AL East, in a season marked by the appearance of empty seats at Fenway Park and a significant drop in NESN ratings.
- Major League Baseball takes action to unify the American and National League rules pertaining to the Designated Hitter.
- I will keep repeating the inevitable until it comes true. Thus, I predict once again that Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta fulfills her childhood dream by playing the lead role of a revival on Broadway.
- The movie industry is in an uproar when Netflix movies score multiple Academy Awards.
Wild Guesses:
- A flock of wild turkeys takes up residence in and around the Boston Common.
- Declaring them “worthless,” Donald Trump orders the U.S. Mint to stop minting pennies.
- After eliminating dining cars on eastern trains, with a vision of providing airline meals to railroad passengers, former Delta CEO Richard A. Anderson resigns as Amtrak president.
- Massachusetts eliminates traffic congestion between Exits 9 and 10 on the Massachusetts Turnpike, when the exit numbers are changed to conform to federal standards for mileage-based numbering. There are no plans to address traffic congestion between Exits 78 and 90.
Please share widely!
I’m back to Biden as my top bet for the nomination after thinking for a while it might be Warren (which is certainly still plausible). He’ll need to shore up the base with his VP pick.
You were just being silly with your first “world” prediction, right?
This is 2020. No prediction is silly.
I am almost too jittery to predict, but here goes:
A squeaker Dem victory for president.
GOP retains the Senate, we keep the House.
Doug Jones says goodbye (unless it’s Moore again — then maybe he hangs on).
Kennedy beats Markey but it’s close and a little bitter.
Rumors persist about an Al Franken comeback, but it doesn’t happen.
Patriots WIN the Super Bowl!
The Red Sox unravel by mid-season.
The Olympics get their lowest ratings in modern times.
Walsh gets a challenger.
Lori Trahan has a rematch with the guy whose name I can’t recall, and survives, but it’s close.
Pompeo is forced to resign over some type of scandal not related to his job — personal expenses or something like that.
If a Democrat wins, RBG resigns.
Pablo can take this one to the bank
Presidency:
279-259 Biden/Abrams over Trump/Pence with AZ coming in last minute as the clutch state.
Senate: 50-50 with D VP as tie.
Conservatives aren’t too thrilled to vote for Thillis after a bitter primary and the Dem eeks a win even as Biden narrowly loses the state. “Remember the Kavanaugh!“in Maine Sinks Susan Collins while Cory Gardner is a Goner.
House: Minor Net Gain for R while D holds.
RBG resigns under a Dem and dies under Trump. Sad to say.
Primaries:
IA: Bernie
Buttigieg
Biden
Warren
NH: Bernie
Biden
Buttigieg
Warren
SC: Biden cleans house beginning a comeback cycle that ends with a big win on Super Tuesday.
I say this as a Warren leaner probably voting for Bernie again, but in a four candidate race the guy who gets 30% wins.
That’s awfully optimistic regarding Bernie IMO.
He’s consistently out-raised every single Democrat in the field and appears well on his way to an IA upset and a NH win due to the slow but steady collapse of Warren. I could even see him picking up Biden supporters in IA, Bernie is consistently their second choice too. He is underestimated at his opponents peril.
The old left/center/right paradigm is dead Christopher. It’s now outsider/insider.
The fundraising total and contribution count is stunning. It would be a real shame if the Dems screw up with that enthusiasm.
Expecting #VoteBlueNoMatterWho to win over voters telling you #NoMatterWhoWon’tDo is a recipe for losing.
If Biden wins, I don’t know how we bridge that gap. Bernie obviously isn’t in a position to be Biden’s VP, but what could do it? What was tried in 2016 didn’t work.
I am a Warren supporter, and I still think our senior senator is the best candidate to take on Donald Trump. However, if I need to make a prediction right now, today, I see Bernie taking the nomination in much the same way Donald Trump won the GOP nomination four years ago. He wins IA, NH, NV, comes in second in SC, and has the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Bernie’s got a movement, and he is the only one who gets past the massive Bloomberg media buys heading into March. I also think he is enough of a pragmatist that he sees Kamala Harris as the running mate that can move NC and GA.
If Mr. Sanders is our nominee, we will be destroyed in the general.
I don’t believe that Mr. Sanders can turn out enough new voters to overwhelm the red-state voters that will come out of the woodwork and slither out from under the rocks in response to the hysteria and lies that Fox will flood our culture with.
Nominating Bernie Sanders really will be analogous to the 1972 nomination of George McGovern — or even Gene McCarthy (for those who remember him). The fact that he is a darling of the “radical” Democratic activists of today in no way means he will be able to win the general.
Unlike any of the other front-runners, Mr. Sanders will NEVER EVER be able to credibly tack towards the middle, even a little bit. He lacks both the media savvy and the cynical absence of any morality at all that enabled Donald Trump to win (with significant Russian help) in 2016.
Neither Donald Trump nor Mike Pence will need Russian help to beat Bernie Sanders in the general.
So all of the evidence showing him to be very popular among dems, and popular among independents, and outrageously popular among young people should be ignored? Raising more money from more people across all of the country than any candidate in history should be ignored?
In 1972 Nixon was popular and the economy was booming. He was at around 60% approval heading into the election. It was mid-1973 when he became embroiled in Watergate. Nixon would not have won an election in 1973.
Does moving to the middle win elections? How’d that work in 2000, 2004, and 2016?
Moving to the middle worked marvelously in 1992, 1996, 2008, and 2012. It also worked marvelously in 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004.
It’s been done by pretty every candidate of both major parties who has won a contested primary. During the primary season, the candidates vie to win the vote of their own supporters. During the general campaign, the nominees battle to win the rest.
Mr. Sanders is popular among independents in blue states. Being outrageously popular among people who famously don’t vote is irrelevant. Successfully using social media to obtain small contributions from blue states demonstrates the effectiveness of social media. I am much less sure that it says anything predictive about what happens in November of this year.
George McGovern would not have defeated Richard Nixon in 1973. He would not have won had he competed in 1974 or in any election since then. There is a reason he never ran again.
Obama absolutely did not run a centrist campaign in 2008. It was 100% about change (and hope). Same for Clinton, even if his policies were moderate, his message was one of change and hope (literally Hope, Ark.). Running “to the center” isn’t just about explicit policies, it’s about the message and the messenger. 2000, 2004, and 2016 were about trusting an experienced person and not offering a vision of change – explicitly what Biden wants to do this time.
Sanders is widely popular across the country and popular in places where Dems can struggle, like Michigan. As far as his popularity in deep red states, it doesn’t matter much, you don’t need to win them. Sanders has the highest approval rating among Democrats of all the candidates. That doesn’t mean he wins the primary, but it’s evidence that he’s not going to cause some mass defection among regularly voting Democrats if he is the nominee.
Being popular with people who don’t typically vote doesn’t matter? That is a crazy argument. If those people are brought out, it can make all the change in the world. Maybe he could not bring out enough, but calling them irrelevant makes no sense. And being good on social media is also irrelevant? Are you just trolling now?
Sure. How many people in this country like their insurance deductible?
I don’t see “hope and change” as inconsistent with a move to the center.
My recollection is that each candidate moved towards the center in comparison to their primary campaigns. Each candidate moved even further rightward while in office.
@being popular with people who don’t vote:
Being popular with people who don’t vote only matters if those people are motivated to turn out.
I see little evidence that Mr. Sanders is accomplishing that.
@social media:
I didn’t say it was irrelevant. I said that success at raising money using social media is not predictive of the general election results.
Raising a small amount of money from a user requires almost no commitment from that user. It takes a few seconds to click through a contribution for $10 and the deed is done.
Getting that same user to register to vote (because a huge number of them aren’t even registered) and then actually go to a poll and cast a ballot on election day is a completely different proposition.
@ Insurance deductible:
How many people in this country care about their insurance deductible? An astonishing number of people don’t even know what a “deductible” is, never mind are about it.
Not to put too fine a point on it, this is particularly true for those legions of young “non-participating” potential voters. Many or most of them either don’t have health insurance at all or have insurance provided by their employers or families. Many or most of them similarly don’t even know what a deductible is because they healthy and don’t spend much time in hospitals and doctor’s offices. Among those that do, a great many of them rely on their families to pay the resulting bills.
I predict that the Democratic nominee will run away from the current M4A exchanges and proposals in the general election. That is one of the first ways we will see the nominee run to the center no matter who the nominee is.
I think people are a lot more familiar with the costs of health care than you imply.
Young people are more likely to defer care because of cost.
Kaiser Family Foundation Poll.
And to the extent your point about younger voters is true, they are also the ones likely to have massive student loan debt. What’s more likely to bring them out – someone with a clear, bold universal approach or the guy who told young people who complain about economic challenges to “give me a break”?
I think you both lay out a strong case for your side. I honestly do not know who is right. I would’ve been with double man four years ago, and that is where my heart is today, but I just do not know. I say vote for the person you like in the primary and vote for the nominee in the general regardless of who it is. That’s all we can control. The behavior of other people is not up to me. I hope they do the right thing this time and send this clown car home.
I’m not pessimistic about Sanders’s chances in the general, but I still don’t think he’ll get that far.
For Trahan the name you’re looking for is Dan Koh, who has been quieter lately. RBG probably retires rather than resigns.
He’s also a lousy candidate. Boy would that race have benefitted from ranked choice voting. I liked Gifford, Chandler, and the guy who kept emailing me asking me to work for him (forgot his name though, so I don’t think he went too far). They should also consider running again.
L’Italien, Chandler, Gifford were my 1, 2, 3 respectively. I agree regarding RCV in that race. Koh would need a justification of his campaign that did not sound like being a sore loser.
#NailedIt
Bloomberg-Castro.
Giulianai is indicted sooner than you think.
The Texas rancher who is killed by Trump’s anti-enviro police is a woman.
Addendum: Trump tosses Pence this summer in favor of Nikki Haley
I’ll say this about Bloomberg-his ads are good and they are everywhere. The recent one with the nurse really impressed my wife with its detail on the underrated issues with healthcare that have a lot more to do with staffing and training and less to do with coverage. His strategy seems destined to fail, but we will see.
Biden wins the primary and beats Trump in 2020. By 2024, life still stinks for the working class and Donald Trump Jr with Nikki Haley as his running mate soundly beats Biden as the Republicans retain the senate and re-take the house.