Here’s to reviving a dormant BMG tradition for the new year! If you revisit my past predictions on this site, most of them were wrong. I’m apparently in good company among professional pundits.
1) President-Narrow D Gain
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Biden-Abrams narrowly defeats Trump-Pence in the Electoral College 279-259 while enjoying a much wider popular vote victory over the incumbent ticket. AZ is a nail biter the entire night with control of both the presidency and senate resting on the shoulders of its voters, with America waking up to the copper state narrowly turning blue, and along with it, the federal government.
2) Senate-Narrow D Gain
R Gains D Gains
Alabama Colorado
Maine
Arizona
North Carolina
Vice President Stacey Abrams casts the tie breaking vote giving Democrats control.
3) House-R Gains some seats, but D Hold
Dems make gains off of North Carolina redistricting and TX retirements, but lose some Trump leaning seats to the GOP. Including Collin Peterson and Jared Golden.
4) Local primaries
Alex Morse upsets House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal. Seth Moulton, Steve Lynch, and Bill Keating comfortably hold off their challengers. Jake Auchincloss wins primary to replace Joe Kennedy in the House. Ed Markey loses by double digits to Joe Kennedy.
I think a couple of those are wishful thinking. I don’t think Abrams will be the VP nominee and I definitely don’t see Markey losing to Kennedy by double digits. If you are assuming a Biden win it would be odd for the Dems to lose House seats. Your CD4 prediction is someone I don’t know at all.
House predictions are just a hunch. Some Trump districts that Dems narrowly carried in 2018 will be lost due to higher presidential year turnout. There may be a small impeachment backlash in some heavy R+’s that went our way last time. I think it’ll be offset somewhat by the Texas retirements in Romney-Clinton districts and the NC redistricting. So either a small net loss or net gain. Not predicting a major change.
With the caveat that we’re friends so of course I’m predicting he wins, Jake Auschincloss is well known among the vet community and has been a top vote getter in Newton city council races, the most populated part of the district. Alan Khazei is certainly better known, but few of the other candidates have as much name recognition as Jake does. It’s a largely unknown and unpredictable race, not unlike the open CD3 last fall.
Lastly on Kennedy-Markey, that’s where the polls were the day he announced and nothing either candidate has done seems to have moved the needle all that much. Undecideds usually break for the challenger.
I think Biden will be pressured to pick a young, charismatic, VP of color ready to step in on day 1. Basically an inverse of 2008. While Harris, Booker, and Castro are arguably better known, they all said negative things about him during this race. Abrams stayed above the 2020 fray and had the best received state of the union response in decades. Unlike Gillum, there’s no corruption investigation hanging over her head. Just another hunch,
More importantly everyone should share theirs.
I know everyone is gaga over Abrams, but she has only been a state legislator and IMO fails the ready on day one test, which is more important than demographic traits anyway. I don’t have a dog in the CD4 race, but personally know Becky Grossman and Jesse Mermell. Higher presidential year turnout usually helps Dems.
She was an effective Minority Leader in a red state and has more legislative leadership experience than either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton did when they first got elected to the Senate. She’s at least as qualified as Beto or Mayor Pete. She came a lot closer than either of those two at winning her statewide race.
I agree that Booker is a perfect VP choice for any of the top four frontrunners, my only qualm about him is whether he can go on the attack against Pence. Harris probably is the easiest to picture in that role.
We will have to see! Who’s your top choice?
For VP? I entertained Beto for a while (who does at least have some federal experience), but that was premised on the assumption he’d go further in this primary season. Now my fantasy is that he and Julian Castro form a TX gubernatorial ticket for 2022. Biden will likely have to shore up the base. I liked Warren as a VP pick for Hillary, but maybe she would work for Biden too.
President:
I think each of these have equal likelihood.
Sanders-Warren win in largest victory since 2008 (312-226, 7-8M popular vote)
Biden-Harris win a squeaker
Biden-Harris lose a squeaker
Senate:
Dems net +1, GOP maintains control.
House:
Republican gains but Dems hold.
I would add the following as the second line of your prediction:
“Warren-Sanders win in largest victory since 2008 (312-226, 7-8M popular vote)”
I don’t see Ms. Harris on a Joe Biden ticket, though. Maybe Cory Booker, maybe Amy Klobuchar.
Ha. I think we’ll have some clarity in about 6 weeks. It looks like Sanders is in a better position via polling, organizing, and money than Warren at the moment. If either one of them doesn’t take two or three of the first four states, I think Biden could run away. My hope is that Sanders and Warren finish top 2 in IA and NH and gather more than 50% combined, leading to a scramble from the establishment to coalesce around someone and not being able to do it in time, especially with the billionaire vanity runs preventing one single moderate candidate getting enough support to win. Biden can withstand mediocre performance in the early states but bad 3rds or 4ths would create a clear media narrative (if he loses the electability argument he’s over), could seriously weaken his SC firewall and any chance at momentum into Super Tuesday.
And another prediction. If Buttigieg somehow gets this nomination, Trump will be reelected in a small rout.
Maybe the earlier attacks left some bad feelings in the Biden camp about Harris, but I think she’d be the top of the shortlist.
I have a very hard time seeing a ticket of not one but two New England lefties.
And I have a hard time seeing a racist unqualified reality show host winning the Republican nomination only to have it leaked he assaulted women, paid hush money to porn stars, and worked with the Russians against the Democratic nominee. I have an even harder time seeing that guy get total cover from a Republican Senate and evangelical base, but here we are.
I think if you buy into the idea that 2016 was part of a wave of populist revolts against the neoliberal consensus you could do worse than a Sanders/Warren ticket. That is certainly what Chapo Trap House, the rest of left wing twitter, and Jacobin think. When they aren’t busy dishonestly attacking Warren they pine for her on a unity ticket with Bernie. Especially since the delegate math is looking pretty grim for either of them winning without the others supporters.
My two word rebuttal to that theory is Jeremy Corbyn. I will still probably vote for Bernie or Warren as my preferred presidents, but I am not sure they are my preferred nominees. We have six weeks to go until we start to find out!
If Corbyn is your best rebuttal, then it is a very bad rebuttal.
Corbyn was extremely unpopular at around minus 40 favorability. That’s like someone less popular than Mitch McConnell running. Labour’s Brexit position was incoherent, and Brexit was THE main issue of the election. Matchup polls showed the Tories consistently winning – Labour never led nationally at any point. What are the similarities to US politics?
There’s a facile argument that going left was what doomed Labour, and moderate Democrats certainly want to point to that, but there is little evidence to support it. If there was a uniquely unpopular leftist candidate (there isn’t) running in an election dominated by an issue on which they have no policy one (again, not happening here), then the lessons of Labour’s defeat might be instructive.
I largely agree with that argument, but to borrow a Yogism, we will not know until we know. For every Trump voter I know who would vote for Bernie in a heartbeat there’s another Romney-Clinton voter ready to stay home if a lefty is on the ticket. I really think ideological balancing will be important, which is why I’d rather see a Sanders-Booker or Sanders-Klobuchar ticket.
Our nominee has a tall order ahead of them. Promise the structural change the populists want without alienating the moderates we need to unite with to defeat Trump while keeping minority and youth turnout at Obama levels. 2018 shows us the road map.
Gotta do all f it simultaneously.
Booker is too Wall Street for Sanders. Kamala Harris is the definitive VEEP candidate; she didn’t articulate much of a policy position, but got good marks for people who said she was their second choice.
I agree she’s a strong choice and think she’d relish the role of fighter against Trump or attack dog against Pence. She failed to really articulate what she was for, but she’s a force in hearings where she takes on the President and his corruption.
I have thought from the beginning that Harris was best suited for AG, which remains my opinion.
President:
Joe Biden/whomever he chooses runs as GOP-light and wins by a comfortable margin well short of 2008/2012.
Senate:
GOP retains control, Dems gain 1 or 2
House:
Dems retain control, GOP gains some.
My bottom line is that big business regains its transparent ownership of the government, while reigning in some of the excesses of the Donald Trump era. I think the most significant outcome of the brief Donald Trump administration will be right-wing dominance of the judiciary — including the Supreme Court — for generations.
Abortion rights, gun control, environmental regulation, voter rights, and so on are all dead for decades.
I think Ed King in Massachusetts is a reasonable foreshadowing of Donald Trump in America — a one-term flash-in-the-pan with no real support anywhere and no long-term accomplishments.
I think Donald Trump will prove to be a magnificent distraction from the top-to-bottom fascist takeover of American democracy.