They need to find a way to box Manchin in on only one remaining issue: and that is the issue of the filibuster. Everything else will flow from that (and this includes DC statehood, which ultimately will make Manchin less important.)
I still think there is good evidence that this has already been done. I think the parties are all still dancing the roles needed to succeed.
Joe Manchin has to win re-election in WV in 2024 if we don’t pick up seats in 2022. Joe Manchin has to have good and credible accomplishments to show his Trumpist electorate in order to accomplish that.
He’s already made it clear that he is receptive to filibuster reform, just as he’s already made it clear that his biggest objection to the $15/hr minimum wage provision was the procedural aspect of doing it under reconciliation.
It is reported that he and Joe Biden go back a long way.
I think the best way to get Mr. Manchin’s support — for filibuster reform, a $15/hr minimum wage, and a pile of other things — is to pour constructive resources into his campaign. Help him with his voters. Help him move West Virginia public opinion towards the Democratic agenda. Help him show his electorate how they will benefit from that agenda and how the GOP/Trumpist agenda has hurt them.
That sounds to me like a positive and constructive way to “box him in”, and I agree that we MUST do it.
We must break the GOP/McConnell/Trumpist stranglehold on the Senate and on federal government.
Manchin can be a populist in the other direction if he wants to. I seem to recall that Elizabeth Warren actually got a good reception with WV crowds when she was still a candidate for President.
There’s a wide swatch of voters who are economically progressive and socially conservative and the Democratic party continues to do poorly with them. I think the infrastructure bill has a lot of good stuff in there for them, and Manchin will ultimately vote for it and some filibuster reform. Even changes that fall short of elimination like a talking filibuster or flipping the vote count to put the onus on sustaining a filibuster will do much to discourage its abuse. Or lowering it to 55 votes (which gives more agency to the Romney-Collins-Murkowski bloc to play ball with the Dems).
As Tom eluded to, if we can also pick up more seats in 22’ it gives him the freedom to vote against stuff like DC statehood or stricter gun control without ultimately changing the outcome. I’m increasingly bullish on WI, PA, and even Ohio as possible pickups. Sen. Warnock will be assisted by Stacey Abrams running a rematch against Brian Kemp, and he has already raised a lot of money. As Chris Sununu stays out of the race against Maggie Hassan, I think there are few other seats vulnerable to the GOP. They are on defense while the Dems are on offense.
They need to find a way to box Manchin in on only one remaining issue: and that is the issue of the filibuster. Everything else will flow from that (and this includes DC statehood, which ultimately will make Manchin less important.)
When I say box him in, I mean in either a positive or a negative way.
Give him whatever he wants.
Do whatever it takes, to get rid of the filibuster- at all costs.
I think this is about right.
I still think there is good evidence that this has already been done. I think the parties are all still dancing the roles needed to succeed.
Joe Manchin has to win re-election in WV in 2024 if we don’t pick up seats in 2022. Joe Manchin has to have good and credible accomplishments to show his Trumpist electorate in order to accomplish that.
He’s already made it clear that he is receptive to filibuster reform, just as he’s already made it clear that his biggest objection to the $15/hr minimum wage provision was the procedural aspect of doing it under reconciliation.
It is reported that he and Joe Biden go back a long way.
I think the best way to get Mr. Manchin’s support — for filibuster reform, a $15/hr minimum wage, and a pile of other things — is to pour constructive resources into his campaign. Help him with his voters. Help him move West Virginia public opinion towards the Democratic agenda. Help him show his electorate how they will benefit from that agenda and how the GOP/Trumpist agenda has hurt them.
That sounds to me like a positive and constructive way to “box him in”, and I agree that we MUST do it.
We must break the GOP/McConnell/Trumpist stranglehold on the Senate and on federal government.
Manchin can be a populist in the other direction if he wants to. I seem to recall that Elizabeth Warren actually got a good reception with WV crowds when she was still a candidate for President.
There’s a wide swatch of voters who are economically progressive and socially conservative and the Democratic party continues to do poorly with them. I think the infrastructure bill has a lot of good stuff in there for them, and Manchin will ultimately vote for it and some filibuster reform. Even changes that fall short of elimination like a talking filibuster or flipping the vote count to put the onus on sustaining a filibuster will do much to discourage its abuse. Or lowering it to 55 votes (which gives more agency to the Romney-Collins-Murkowski bloc to play ball with the Dems).
As Tom eluded to, if we can also pick up more seats in 22’ it gives him the freedom to vote against stuff like DC statehood or stricter gun control without ultimately changing the outcome. I’m increasingly bullish on WI, PA, and even Ohio as possible pickups. Sen. Warnock will be assisted by Stacey Abrams running a rematch against Brian Kemp, and he has already raised a lot of money. As Chris Sununu stays out of the race against Maggie Hassan, I think there are few other seats vulnerable to the GOP. They are on defense while the Dems are on offense.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/democrats-have-a-good-chance-of-holding-the-senate-in-2022.html