Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Top Senate predictions

By

Full listing (BMG in blue, RMG in red).

Deviations Predictor Brown Coakley Kennedy
0 Actual 51.9 47.1 1

0.2 Ken Pittman 52 47 1
0.2 Paul “Cool Cal“ Ferraro 52 47 1
1.6 Mike “DD4RP” Rossettie 52 46.2 1.6
1.8 yankeepundit 51 48 1
1.8 Republican Ram Rod Radio 51 48 1
2 garyrlake 51 47 2
2 swamp_yankee 51 47 2
2.5 RMG prediction average 51 46.9 2.4
2.8 Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno 50.5 48.5 1
3.8 Argyle 50 49 1
4 South Shore Republican 50 47 3
4.2 demolisher 54 45 1
5 JoeTS 49 47 3
5 Peter Porcupine 49 47 3
5.6 Philo Publius 53.7 44.3 2
5.8 JohnD 49 48.5 2.5
5.8 MerrimackMan 49 48 3
6 cater68 51 45 4
6 Peter Porcupine 49 47 4
6 All predictions average 48.9 48.7 2.4
6.1
BlueMass model		 52.7 44 3.2
6.2 VESuggestions 54.3 44 1.7
6.2 Witch7 54 44 2
6.2 nomad943 54 44 2
7.6 ElectricStrawberry 48.1 48.1 3.8
7.8 sleeples 48 50 2
7.8 sleepleswithamoustache 48 50 2
7.8 Vote3rdpartynow 48 48 4
8.1 BMG/RMG models AVG 47.9 49.2 3
8.8 Hoyapaul 47.5 51 1.5
8.8 jconway 47.5 49.5 3
8.8 PeteSimon 47 49 3
9.2 Manny Happy Returns 53 41 3
9.8 sabutai 47 51 2
10.3 BMG prediction average 46.7 50.4 2.8
11.8 Wookie 46 52 2
11.8 HLPeary 46 52 2
11.8 BigD 46 49 5
12.8 ruppert 46 53 2
13.8 Carey Theil 45 53 2
13.8 Ray M 45 52 3
15.8 eddiecoyle 44 54 2
15.8 PatrickLong 44 51 5
16.8 Steve Stein 43 51 5
19.6 RedMass model 42.1 55.2 2.7
21.8 BrooklineTom 46 61 3
32.8 petr 32 59

Possible reasons for why RedMass did so well?

1) In a tossup race, BMG erred on the side of Coakley, RMG on the side of Brown. Race broke to Brown, they got lucky.

2) RMG better at predicting outcomes of elections.

Future data may help answer that question.

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Comments

  1. 3) with no money riding on the race, predictors maximized the next most important thing — their side’s chance of winning.  What do I mean?

    <

    p>When the narrative is that your candidate will win in a squeaker, it’s easy to motivate folks to work for your candidate.  When the narrative is that your candidate will come up short, it’s much harder to get folks to work GOTV.  So, the narrative is always the same: it’s close, but our guy/gal will come out on top as long as we work hard.

    <

    p>After all, if you don’t lose money for being wrong, might as well be wrong in the way that maximizes your candidate’s chances of winning.

    • I do think that is a factor in close races. My hope is that is a factor that can be isolated and accounted for to help get an accurate picture of where the race actually is.

      <

      p>Maybe if the predictions were private, they would be free from that kind of bias?

  3. what is the relation b/w sleeples and sleeples with a moustache?  “they” had identical predictions.  

    <

    p>is it the same relationship as the one between Ernie Boch Jr and EB3?  

    • And since I don’t know the true nature of EB3 and Ernie Boch Jr’s relationship, I’ll decline to compare the two.

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