It is my belief that everybody who is going to vote for Scott Brown was well motivated by the end of last week, when the latest round of polling began. I find it truly difficult to believe that there has been a huge defection of likely Coakley voters in just the past few days, which is what most of the polls seem to be suggesting.
Instead, I believe that the percentage of Coakley voters has increased dramatically in the past 72 hours, which is not reflected in the weighting of the most recent polls.
We saw a similar situation in the NY 23 congressional race, where the final polls failed to predict a large turnout of the Anti-Anti vote. The establishment majority freaked out at the last minute when the polls said the arch-conservative tea-bag-backed candidate was going to win huge, and the Dem won instead.
I am seeing and sensing a lot of that “freak out” among Massachusetts Dems and liberals who probably would not have voted tomorrow if the polls showed Martha ahead.
Remember, there has not been a tight race, with national significance, within Massachusetts since…. I don’t know when. Obama, Kerry, Gore, etc… all had Mass sewn up long before the polls opened. This is the first time in almost a generation that Mass Dems have been forced into a corner on the national stage.
I’d bet a pitcher of beer that we rise to the occasion.
That said, I am not confident, not at all, about this race. But I am not pessimistic either. I’ll definitely be up late.
**** Sub prediction – Should Coakley pull it off, look for the wacko-right wing to start gnashing their teeth about voter fraud, ACORN, the SEIU, etc… It will be very ugly.