Blue Mass Group

Charley beat me to the punch, but I want to elaborate a bit on the new Suffolk poll, which is impossible to see as anything but very good news for Governor Patrick.  As Charley has reported, the horserace numbers are good: at 7 points, Patrick’s lead remains stable, and even a bit larger than most recent polls had been showing.  Perhaps even more crucially, though, the fav/unfav numbers now apparently favor the Governor:

Both Cahill and Baker are polling higher negatives than positives. Not so for Patrick, who has a 46 percent favorability rating, compared to 43 percent who view him unfavorably.

That’s a remarkable turnaround, and I believe the first time that Baker’s unfav rating has exceeded his fav.

And it appears that much of my Loscocco-gate prediction has turned out to be basically right:

Cahill’s former aides and ex-running mate Paul Loscocco – who left the campaign to endorse Baker – ended up doing more harm than good. The move hurt not just Cahill, the state treasurer and independent challenger, but Baker as well, with 17 percent of voters saying the debacle made them less likely to support Baker.

And perhaps even more importantly,

The episode did little to boost confidence in Baker’s leadership, with twice as many voters saying Patrick has the best temperament to be governor – and 38 percent saying he has run the best campaign.

I’m also struck by quotes from two local pundits who are not generally thought to be great friends of Deval:

“Whether they like Deval Patrick or not, people are still saying he’s run the best campaign and he has the best temperament to be governor,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s on the goal line. But he hasn’t gotten the touchdown yet.” …

“Tim Cahill is toast, and Charlie Baker is getting burned by his manner and message,” said 7News political editor Andy Hiller, who added Patrick is like the “Mona Lisa” with his “serene smile” as the other two go for the jugular.

Finally, in another bit of good news for Patrick, Jill Stein is predictably becoming a non-factor, polling at only 1% this time (down from 4% last time).  

So, bottom line: obviously the race is still pretty close, so no victory laps allowed.  But this poll should be a huge shot in the arm for Deval backers.  Work hard for the next three weeks, and we can win this thing.

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