Two weeks ago, we wrote that “the difference in mood between the liberal blogosphere and the conservative blogosphere is striking.” We observed that righty bloggers were feeling increasingly confident aboutJohn McCain‘s chances, whereas lefty bloggers were growing increasingly concerned about what they perceived to be Barack Obama‘s inability to respond effectively to McCain’s attacks.
Today, that dynamic is even more pronounced. As McCain continues to rise in national polls, the mood in the conservative blogosphere ranges from cautiously optimistic to very confident. Meanwhile, the anxiety in the liberal blogosphere is palpable. Josh Marshall observes that Obama’s message “seems very muddled” while digby warns that “the Democratic campaign in the fall is going to have to be much much tougher than the summer [campaign] was.” Several bloggers are comparing Obama to Michael Dukakis and complaining that he isn’t hitting back hard enough.
The honeymoon with Obama, like all honeymoons, ended this summer. It was bound to end as the Right either fabricated or accentuated his negatives. American voters, however, aren’t giving up. They’re just being careful. Before committing to a candidate, they want to make sure they know him. They already think they know McCain. At next week’s convention, they should be able to say they know him.
The counter-punches everyone was complaining about the Obama campaign not throwing have already begun. Expect them to continue. Obama’s got smart, tough people in his camp. His campaign’s experience proxy aka vice president is supposed to be announced tomorrow (or not).
Time is of the essence. We’re in the right place at the right time.
so he can hit back on this.
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p>An unleashed Biden or Clark would be perfect.
Having gotten that out of the way, let me vent a little. I’m an ol’ campaign dog. Been around a lot of them and not afraid to do what it takes to win. I am pragmatic, perhaps, to a fault. And I’m certainly not, when it comes to campaigns, all about kumbaya, I love you man, can’t we all get along bullshit.
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p>Given that, Obama worries me. His campaign’s reluctance to throw a punch is a problem. I posted elsewhere today on the web that I would expect, at this point, for Obama to be skillful at using McCain’s own words against him over and over in ad after ad on television. “One hundred years in Iraq!” “Five million dollars means rich!” We should be bombarded with Obama ads that show video of McCain looking like the mildly (moderately?) demented ass he is. We should be seeing that surreal tape of McCain grinning like a cadaver in front of that kelly green backdrop when he mocked Obama’s “that’s not change we can agree with.” Cue the grimace, please; freeze the frame.
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p>Way back when, I stated that I was concerned about Obama’s tendency towards conciliation. I am more concerned than ever. He squandered a beautiful opportunity to get a surrogate to bite at McCain’s military ankles when he threw Wes Clark under the Hope For Change bus. Dumb move, Barack. Just plain dumb.
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p>Obama cannot win this thing playing Pollyanna. The high road leads right off a cliff. Just ask John Kerry.
I don’t think the Obama campaign’s approach is any surprise. It is in keeping with his style of campaigning throughout his career: accentuate the positive, avoid negative attacks. It has worked very well for him. The best counter-argument is that he has faced only one difficult race in his career (against Senator Clinton) and just barely won that one. In any event, the surprise will be if he changes his strategy and adopts the approach you recommend.
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p>With respect to your specific suggestion about harping on the “100 Years in Iraq” comment, I think that would be a mistake. Because McCain didn’t say that we should stay in Iraq for 100 years under present conditions, only under peaceful conditions as in Korea and Japan (how to get from here to there is, of course, the difficulty). I’m sympathetic to the desire to attack McCain, but there are lots better ways to do it than twisting this comment, in my opinion.
was even more ridiculous than most originally interpreted it. Iraq will never be Germany or Japan. People get that.
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p>Roll the commercial…
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p>I have to say I think Lightiris is right in this case. Obama isn’t going overly negative by using McCain’s words against him. If he says something, that’s fair game. Now, making up BS charges, etc. like the Republicans throw at us? Obviously Obama shouldn’t do that. Americans want a tough leader. He has to throw a punch. I’ve seen him do it before.
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p>That doesn’t mean he’s negative, that means he wants to win. Playing tough doesn’t mean stooping to Karl Rove’s level, but we can’t be the Pollyanna party either – as Light said – because it’s gotten us no where in the past.
linked in the post- a response to the tank ad:
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p>I’m starting to think that Presidential races are unlike other races in that voters reward the clear aggressor. Perhaps some reptilian drive in our subconscious. Certainly, the Axelrod Method ™has worked well in the senate- and gubernatorial level, but has yet to be successful at this level.
From a GOPer with no particular dog in this fight:
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p>Obama’s campaign staff certainly figured out the numerical strategy to get the nomination (ignoring the caucuses was a major gaffe on HRC’s part), but he basically stumbled into the delegate lead in June when the math made it impossible for Hillary to get the nomination. You aren’t worried at all that she was showing significant victories at the end for your candidate?
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p>If I was an Obama supporter, I would be worried (and those aren’t jitters; what’s that old saying “just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you?”). How in heck the presumptive Democratic nominee in ’08 isn’t stomping in poll numbers indicates that you have a weak candidate, to say the least.
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p>Of course these are the dog days of August (fun in the sun, never mind that at 6 this morning the old Weatherbug was showing an alarming temperature of 49 degrees), so the race really hasn’t begun. But I would be wary of blogging attempts to counter attacks; reality is that you’re only convincing those who wouldn’t be voting for McCain in any event.
that we’re going to win this thing – by a land slide. We’re going to work hard for it, knowing what’s at stake: Iraq, fiscal sanity and so much more.
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p>I was just at a tri-town democratic committee event and one of the town chairs, who’s will be a delegate at the convention, said she had two words for why any reluctant voter should vote for Barack: Supreme Court. Ain’t that the truth.
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p>People will come around. The polls will go in Obama’s favor by the end of the convention, likely by solid margins. We’ll then have to build on those numbers and make as many states competitive as possible. We can’t just win this thing, we need to send a message to the entire country that the Bush/Rove/Gingrich/Delay era is over – and it won’t be remembered by anything but disgust for as long as this country shall exist.
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p>The expanded list of states Barack Obama’s competitive in will make it much easier for our party to win (and build in our lead in the House and Senate). If we can win Colorado and/or Virginia alone, it’s mission accomplished. They’re looking good, too.
are already Democrats and already voting as such.
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p>He’s going to need more than the choir in November.
We have a liberal black guy running against a well-known former POW in a fairly conservative country that voted twice (well, once really) for an unimpressive chimpanzee. OF COURSE Obama’s not winning by ten points.
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p>Advice for Obama:
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p>1. Persuade Webb to change his mind about VP. Much better than Biden, Nunn (ugh!), Bayh, Sibelius, or (God help us) Hillary.
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p>2. Get through the convention, the last opportunity for the Billary show to get any oxygen. They will be increasingly irrelevant. Giving them their days in the spotlight in August was exactly the right thing to do.
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p>3. Give a great speech before 70,000 maniacs at the convention. Yes, you’re a celebrity. Make the most of it — don’t hide from it (e.g., the way Gore went wussy after sighing too much in the first 2000 debate).
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p>4. Use your money to pound the living @#%& out of McCain on the economy, especially in the rustbelt.
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p>5. Use your money and the enthusiasm gap to register and turn out huge unprecedented numbers of young and black voters, especially in PA, OH, MI, VA, and MO.
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p>6. Perform well in the debates — remember to keep returning to the issues where people agree with you more than McCain: Iraq, economy (despite the recent polls), choice.
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p>7. Be forceful, confident, unflappable. Look for ways to contrast your temperament to McCain’s. He’s never too far away from a flameout — the better you perform, the more likely you are to induce one.
First, Gallup’s tracking poll shows basically the same story over time- McCain’s ceiling is 44%, which is Obama’s floor; the rest is just oscillation over time.
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p>The story does look a bit worse at 538, but not horribly so.
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p>My hope is that the Obama campaign’s plan for the summer was merely to tread water, avoid letting McCain define Obama too much, and prepare a fall assault, starting right about now. The logic behind this would be that the US presidential campaign cycle is the longest in the world, most voters aren’t really paying attention in the summer, and all a big summertime lead does is put a target on your back (see: Dukakis).
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p>Obama’s recent under the radar negative attacks would be in keeping with this strategy.
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p>My worry is that this isn’t going to work, and that McCain is going to start pulling way in September the way GW did in 2004. But I am less worried about that because in 2004, lots of people still felt good about the Iraq war, and the supreme failures of the Bush administration (and his R backers like McCain) weren’t yet understood.
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p>I did read an interesting argument that Obama should stake out protection of the Constitution as his territory. You know, the “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” part of the Constitution.
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p>Though the Dems haven’t exactly been stellar in pressing the issue, the Republicans are very exposed on this issue. People “get” the Constitution, and though people don’t really get how much the current Administration has undermined it, it’s not that hard a story to tell. And it’s an area (constitutional law) where Obama is clearly the more experienced.
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p>But then again, it’s best to stay with one message, and given the current economy, I’d probably stick with “It’s the economy, stupid, part II”, as Obama is (hopefully) starting to do.
because this was always going to be a close race versus a tough opponent.
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p>I never thought Obama was going to walk away with this one – despite the fact that he is one of most gifted politicians of this era. Why? Because first of all – despite his many weaknesses, McCain always was gonna be formidable. There was a reason he originally was the front-runner for the GOP before his stumble and then recovery. He has appeal – in his story and in his demeanor – and not to mention his perceived maverick streak (which may be a crock but is believed by many). What astounded me about the primaries was that the GOP almost didn’t pick him – when he was clearly their best chance at this thing.
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p>Now, I watched the foibles of McCain’s campaign in the Spring with amusement – the pathetic speeches, the lame events, the bizarre campaign structure. But, I didn’t think it was going to continue forever – that eventually they would correct such obvious flaws and raise their game. I also didn’t think that when push came to shove McCain wouldn’t onload all forms of attack ads at Obama and that under such an onslaught the race would tighten.
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p>And at the same time, while people want change, people are not exactly sure what change they want – politicians come and go and a lot of politicians haven’t delivered in the past, so even a new attractive candidate preaching hope can’t easily pierce people’s inherent cynicism about what is possible. The country is also as divided as ever. We may agree the war has been a disaster, the economy is in the tank, that health care needs fixing – but its hard to find consensus about the solutions. People say they want universal health care. They also say they want lower taxes. Its hard to make it all add up.
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p>So even as dumb pundit after dumb pundit keeps saying the race should be a walk for the man with a D in front of his name – I was never convinced that it was ever that simple. Presidential elections are about the person as much or more than their party. They are personal beyond issues or ideology and here, with McCain and Obama, you have two very compelling candidates in their own ways.
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p>As far how the Obama campaign has responded – I struggle with this one. I tend to think what has got Obama this far is that he and his team have a game plan and they follow it. They don’t just respond to the opposition and they plan for the long-term. Now of course they fight back when needed but they usually do it less directly.
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p>As a fan and rabid partisan I hunger to see Obama rip into McCain but I also know that it could blowback and that Obama wants to run his campaign and not kow-tow to the cheap seats. He’s got pretty far doing it that way so I trust it can get him across the finish line. Its fine to have the jitters now – I always had em because Democrats and liberals never have easy races in a conservative country like ours. But, we have a great candidate who has already got further then many expected. We have no choice but to win.
Or not. Won’t change a single fucking thing either way.
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p>Do any of you think this is about Obama? Or anything he does (or doesn’t do…)??
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p>Rationality is not a requirement of voting.
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p>You can’t force anyone to vote rationally. And you can’t be a liberal democrat if you manipulate people into voting a certain way. The two things are incompatible at the genetic level. Hope and coercion are antithetical. If you don’t like that then you belong in the other party…
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p>You can’t be a liberal democrat full of hope if you feel the need to be ruthless. The two impulses are diametric opposites and can’t exist in the same person. There isn’t going to be any Democratic version of Karl Rove. Obama will cease to be Obama if he tries to coerce people or if he tries to be ruthless. John Kerry could easily have won in 2004 if he had followed the advice of Bill Clinton and thrown gays under the bus by embracing the GOPs anti-gay marriage rhetoric. In his own words, John Kerry said “I’m not ever going to do that.” I’ll stand with John Kerry, win or lose, any day.
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p>We are the good guys. Our job is harder. Embrace that one simple fact.
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p>But feel free to wallow in abject terror… if that’ll make you feel better…. (!? head scratch…) Me, I plan to either celebrate an Obama victory or endure a McCain presidency.
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Voters may not be rational, but that doesn’t mean candidates shouldn’t or can’t be.
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p>Obama’s actions clearly do matter as far as votes are concerned. You seem to be lumping manipulation and coercion into something, I don’t know what. What exactly are liberals allowed to do that doesn’t qualify as manipulation or coercion?
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p>Mark