The Globe mentions Senate President Therese Murray as a potential candidate, and I could definitely see her making the jump. She represents a good chunk of the district, has served in the State Senate for nearly 20 years, and her time as Senate President has certainly connected her with the financial backers she would need. Plus, unless a new face emerges, I can’t see a stronger woman candidate in a potential Democratic field.
(It occurred to me after I wrote this that former Lt. Governor candidate Andrea Silbert, currently president of the Eos Foundation, lives in Harwich and could be a candidate.)
There has also been considerable speculation that Joe Kennedy III could be a candidate. He is registered to vote in Hyannis and is working in the Barnstable County District Attorney’s office. Joe III had been discussed as a potential contender for Capuano’s seat if he had won the Senate election, but the Cape Cod seat probably makes just as much sense.
There are a number of other Democratic elected officials in the 10th Congressional, some of whom would probably at least consider a run if Delahunt was to retire and Murray was to pass.
On Beacon Hill the district includes Democratic State Senators Michael Morrissey and Robert O’Leary. Morrissey had been considering a run for Norfolk County District Attorney if the Coakley dominoes had fallen as expected. With that door closed, he may still be looking to move on from the legislature after more than 30 years on Beacon Hill.
Senator O’Leary could make an interesting candidate. A tenured professor of history and politics at Massachusetts Maritime Academy, O’Leary served 14 years as a Barnstable County Commissioner and in 2000 became the first Democrat elected to the State Senate from the Cape and Islands since the Civil War (according to his website). O’Leary represents a huge chunk of the 10th Congressional.
On the House side, the district includes a number of Democratic State Reps., including Sarah Peake, Ron Mariano, Garrett Bradley, Thomas Calter, Demetrius Atsalis, Matthew Patrick, Cleon Turner, Robert Nyman, James Cantwell, James Murphy, Timothy Madden, Stephen Tobin, and Bruce Ayers. I could see a couple of them at least exploring a run, but most are likely to stay put.
Of course Treasurer Tim Cahill also lives in the 10th Congressional, but he is currently occupied.
In county government, Norfolk County Sheriff Michael Bellotti lives in Quincy, and could potentially be a candidate. Norfolk County District Attorney William Keating lives outside of the district, and the DA’s and Sheriffs in both Plymouth and Barnstable counties are Republicans.
There is always potential for a wealthy non-elected official to throw his hat in the ring (a la Steve Pagliuca). Jack Shields, president of Shields Health Care Group, lives in the district and ran for Congress as a Democrat in the early 1990’s (when he was in his early 30’s). Another name that was mentioned on my site was Phil Edmonson, a director of the Progressive Business Leaders Network and a leading figure in the push for Massachusetts Health Care Reform. Between the Cape and some of the other wealthy suburbs in the district (Hingham, Cohasset, Duxbury, etc.), there are probably a number of wealthy individuals who would consider running for an open seat.
So all eyes will be on Delahunt for the next few weeks. But as long as the strong potential for his retirement is out there, you can probably expect to see some behind-the-scenes machinations by Democratic candidates gearing up for a run.
…then retire in 2012, thus making the decision as to which incumbent gets eliminated if the wisdom holds that we lose a House seat? Maybe then there could be a logical Cape/Islands/Plymouth County district that doesn’t have to extend all the way to Quincy. As for choice of successor, President Murray would seem to make the most sense, though she would go from state powerhouse to freshman in Congress, so short term that may feel like a demotion. Wouldn’t mind another Kennedy generation either.
You’re losing that one. Sam Meas has charisma, character, and financial backing. Yes, I think he’ll win his primary vs. Jon Golnik.
I’ve got a friend out in Fresno who asked me about him.
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p>I know our conservative friends like to complain when Dems raise money out of district/state… will they do so with Mr. Meas? I doubt it, but then I don’t have any problem at all with out-of-region fund raising.
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p>I noticed that his web page rather incorrectly claims that “[President Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress] have not allocated a single penny to bail out the working and fast-disappearing middle class.” I noticed he also then advocates for the very policy that exacerbated the Great Depression — no deficit spending during a time of cyclical contraction.
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p>He’s clearly not too hep to actually reading bills either; he states that “We must target the stimulus package directly to the working class by giving money to the people instead of to financial institutions,” completely oblivious that the stimulus bill was 35% tax cuts (directly to the working class), 20% was fiscal relief for states and localities (allowing them to not lay off their working class teachers, cops, firemen, civil servants), 10% was transfer payments (unemployment, social security, and food stamps — and I’d add that many people receiving social security or food stamps are working; they’re underemployed). Of course, 35% was for infrastructure, and I have no idea who builds roads, bridges, sewers, and railways if not “working people”.
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p>Yeah, maybe he’s great on the campaign trail, but his single page website doesn’t pass the smell test. Course, maybe that doesn’t matter (see Brown, Scott).
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p>billxi: how much you want to bet that Mr. Meas does not win the 5th district in 2010?
I know our conservative friends like to complain when Dems raise money out of district/state
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p>I’m pretty sure I only ever complain about state reps raising money from out of state, in particular the Tim Gill strategy for electing stealth pro-SSM reps in a few states where it would swing the legislature. Congress makes federal laws, so of course it makes sense for people to give to candidates in other states, since they will be directly affected by them. Nothing wrong with that.
Pogo/Simple/Fred/Festus/Frank adhers to his end of the last wager.
I’m not sure what P/S/F/F/F has to do with you backing up your claims with a wager. Unless, of course, you’re not nearly as sure as you project…
Has shown me the integrity of democrats. Or lack of integrity. Meas has to win a primary first. I don’t play with kids that don’t pay.
But hey, while we’re talking about the fifth… Did you catch the article on Niki Tsongas today?
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p>http://www.lowellsun.com/today…
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p> A question: How did she spend over $500,000 in campaign money in a non-election year?
The Republican strategy is not what the NRCC says. The national party means squat to those of us that live in Massachusetts. The Republican candidates plan to run on Tsongas record, or lack of it, which is in lockstep with Nancy Pelosi and the democratic house leadership.
After all, there’s another disabled guy I know who is an ass. Therefore, you are too.
Beats answering my question.
You just implied that I have a lack of integrity because I’m a Democrat and P/S/F/F/F is lacking integrity from your perspective. Why would I ever engage someone with a perspective that is so mentally lacking?
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p>I’ve got a script which filters all of your posts from BMG on my browser. I’ve now set it to “on”.
It takes an ass to know an ass. But he or anyone for that matter, still never answered my question of how does Tsongas spnd $500,000 of campaign money in a non-election year, even factoring in that there was no contested election from the year before to spend money on.
I love it when people of supposedly high moral and intellectual? fiber answer a reasonable question with an insult.
Please, someone explain the illegitamacy of my question.
Yeah, stay classy Stormy. But you better move off that glass throne.
Can’t take it, post on a newspaper blog.
…”you” the Democrats, this is about “we” Massachusetts. I live in the fifth and while I know there are a couple of GOP candidates because I’m a political junkie, they aren’t getting any public traction or scrutiny. In other words, most people probably assume at this point that Tsongas is unopposed. The fifth hit back hard when it was threatened with being split and I’m sure would do so again.
Just like Coakley. Don’t wake up. What are you/they going to do when you lose more than one congressional seat? Tsongas beat Ogonowski by about 7,000 votes in 2006. Now if you’ll excuse me, I want to make sure the 70,000 Cambodian-Americans in the district are registered to vote for Sam Meas.
while you’re registering Cambodian-Americans, be sure to quietly acknowledge to yourself that there’s a bunch of senior citizens walking around with Vet hats on who will never vote for someone they’ll call a gook.
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p>Voting for someone because of their skin tone and eye shape makes as much sense as not voting for someone because of their skin tone and eye shape. Unfortunately, both happen. Given a Cambodian candidate, it’s good strategy to go register Cambodian-Americans. With a name like Sam Meas, he might do much better with some groups of Republicans if you don’t show ’em his face.
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p>In the mean time, if I’m the Dems, I tie Mr. Meas to the ugly rhetoric of assorted fellow Republicans, leadership and otherwise. There is certainly plenty to go around.
But they also will not vote for a “broad”, a “nigger”, or a “fag”. I sincerely do not intend offense at any of the aforementioned demographics. But that’s the way our WW2 vets talk. Because of this, I expect Baker/Tisei to have a large problem surviving September. We may have to be politically correct in public, as we should be. But in the privacy of the voting booth, all bets are off.
…I am NOT talking about the possibility of a Democrat losing to a Republican in this context. I am talking about the possibility of our overall delegation going from ten members to nine! For what it’s worth I don’t think we will go down to eight seats overall, regardless of party breakdown.
Look, it’s pretty clear that the Dems will be playing defense in 2010. It’s also well known that, barring particularly unpopular individuals, incumbents have a built-in advantage in a race.
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p>So, really good Democrats — those who would be expected to be the Dem in best position to win — really need to stick it out and run for reelection in tough years like 2010, freeing up Dem resources (money and volunteers!) for other races.
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p>As long as the Republicans in the House think they’ll still be in the minority after November 2010, they’re more likely to retire since it’s really no fun being in the minority in the House. That’s huge, because it allows the Democrats to play offense (if only token) in a few places and frees them up to focus on senate races in AR, NV, PA, CO, DE, IL, MO, IN, OH, NH, KY, and CT (I’m giving up on ND early), as well as other House races.
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p>Grr. Stick it out until 2012 Mr. Delahunt, for the good of the party.
I hope Deluhant decides to stay on. I know politics is tough, but we’d have no better shot at winning than having him run again — and he’s a very solid Representative from everything I’ve seen and heard. As Stomv points out, not only does Delahunt’s decision effect his seat, but the extra resources it would take to hold on to that seat could impact several others.
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p>Should Delahunt retire anyway, I hope Murray doesn’t run. I’m sure she’s a great person, but leadership in the State House comes with a lot of baggage — and it’s very different going from relatively safe State Senate races as a powerful incumbent for a very long time, to a suddenly tense, difficult race for US Congress.
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p>If Delahunt does retire, Andrea Silbert would be an amazing, extremely intelligent, outsider choice whom I’d almost certainly support, should she choose to run and Delahunt retire.
Murray is the most disarming and intelligent person in state government, imho, and I liked Silbert’s ability to explain that progressive policies includes support for a strong private sector.
I confess I’ve never seen many examples of it, but that’s not why I hope she’d stay out. I hope she’d stay out because she’d have a much tougher time winning. Senator Murray represents many of the things people are angry about in politics — insiders and Beacon Hill itself. We don’t need the personification of what most voters think is wrong with Government as our anointed candidate, which she’d almost certainly be should she decide to run. It doesn’t matter if she should be held accountable for those things which voters would be angry about, all that matters is she would be.
Murray is a great candidate on paper, in theory, in another cycle. If this cycle is really all about outsiders, Murray is about the worst possible pick.
Why is Delahunt waiting so late in a political year to make this decision? Doesn’t this leave every prospective candidate little time to raise the federal committee money and construct a campaign? Not so nice.
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p>Also, I believe DA Keating has property and pays taxes in the Delahunt District so he would still be viable candidate as he already serves a large part of the district and has a name recognition that State Reps and a former losing candidate for LG (who has disappeared since) would have.
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p>I hope the Kennedy family will spare us JPKIII as it would only be a lightening rod for the GOP candidate to ride to victory. Can hear Rush and Glen Beck now urging the Tea party folks to make online contributions for whatever GOP candidate was taking on a Kennedy. (They churned up 1.25 mill per day for SB in the last 10 days)
The other Cape legislators probably not. Including PRESIDENT Murray, who is too smart to jump before redsitricting, if then.
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p>However, as a P-town resident, Peake has an EXCELLENT chance of staying in the district(grin), has the private means, and the ambition to run.