Here is a quick question that I have not seen floated anywhere –
Given the notion that Deval Patrick is on the “semi short list” to be nominated to the US Supreme Court when Justice Stevens retires, who is the Democratic Party’s back-up for the Governor’s ballot?
Murray?
What are the rules/law for replacing a gubernatorial candidate?
Please share widely!
there is zero chance that Gov Patrick will be nominated to the Supreme Court. First of all, the next nominee will be Elena Kagan. Second of all, Deval would likely provoke a bigger confirmation battle than Kagan because he has basically no conservative allies, whereas Kagan actually has a lot due to having done an awesome job as dean of Harvard Law, even though she is probably just as liberal as Deval if not moreso.
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p>These prognosticators have to toss out names in order to make it exciting. But I think it will be Kagan unless something very unexpected turns up in the vetting.
I don’t think it will be Kagan. Obama (having wasted his opportunity to really change the court last time) now does not have the political capital to push through a really liberal candidate. Merrick Garland is safer than Kagan, she could be criticized for not having a ton of judicial experience, the fact that she doesn’t have written judicial opinions would be in her favor but it also means we have no way of knowing how she would vote which leaves a lot of liberal groups uneasy. Garrick on the other hand is likely pro-Roe so the left can’t get too upset, but also pretty minimalistic in his rulings and viewed as somewhat pro-business. Only the really radical conservatives would oppose him, Hatch and Graham have already said they like Garrick and one suspects Brown and the Mainers would follow. Seems like he’s the quicker confirmation at this point.
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p>It seems that poor old Cass will have to wait until the next time.
my mistake.
Garland is “safer,” but Kagan would be confirmed. Obama has enough capital from the health care win to get her through, and a Garland nomination would be viewed (correctly) as Obama capitulating to the right just when he doesn’t need to. Furthermore, as I said, Kagan would have rafts of conservative law profs coming out in favor of her nomination, and there isn’t enough of a paper trail to brand her as some kind of left-wing nut. She’ll be the pick IMHO, and she’ll be confirmed in plenty of time to start work in September.
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p>Cass has virtually no chance either this time or later, thank heavens, because he’d be a lousy choice.
For the record I would prefer Kagan to Garland, as I preferred her to Sotomayor. Arguably replacing the silent and reserved Souter with an outgoing, but (in her opinions) similarly reserved Sotomayor made sense. But replacing Stevens who has been the linchpin of the courts liberal wing writing blistering dissents and being crucially persuasive to Anthony Kennedy, requires a justice of real intellectual heft and the ability to persuade colleagues. Kagan’s record of ‘crossing the aisle’ to attract conservatives and deal with them in a fair way would be an asset. So I agree that she would be better than Garland.
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p>That said, where you think the healthcare bill was a first of many progressive victories this year, I think we barely were able to get that one, and that the Democrats, weary of casting more controversial votes, are going to want the quickest confirmation. With Graham and Hatch’s early endorsements, Garland’s anti-terrorism bona fides, and his lack of strongly held views on abortion, gay rights, or other social issues (though one presumes he is a social moderate-liberal) he would be easier than Kagan. The conservatives backing Kagan will be like Charles Fried, who as a staunch libertarian that backed Obama might not be the kind of conservative, or Jack Goldsmith whose views on the torture memos have made him a pariah on the right. I can’t think of any prominent social conservatives on the Harvard faculty that would back Kagan (though feel free to tell me if there are, I honestly don’t know).
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p>As for Cass, why would he be a lousy choice? I am sick and tired of the left/right divide on the court and Cass and his libertarian paternalism presents an incredibly interesting and well reasoned philosophy that would do well on the court. Also I suspect he would have a moderately liberal voting record. Is it because he has written that Roe was poorly decided? His main rationale was that the people should have enacted abortion rights through the legislatures or through constitutional amendment which would have been stronger than Roe, which rests precipitously on these unhealthy Supreme Court balances.
It seems that there are still some who can’t get their head around the idea that a Massachusetts governor actually wants to not only fill out his/her term, but also a second one. We heard that Deval was headed to DC, Deval was on the short list for the Supreme Court (last time), Deval won’t run for re-election, all despite his consistent message that he is sticking around.
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p>I heard him say “one more term and that’s it” (paraphrased), and I’ll take him at his word.
Give the Governor a break for heaven’s sake. The man has repeatedly said he wants to serve a second term and given every indication that is his sole ambition at the moment.
We’ve heard that before from a variety of Governors and its understandable that MA voters are shell-shocked and fatigued from that, that said, and I say this as someone who is not the Governors biggest fan, at this stage in the game he can’t reneg on his re-election. Also President Obama is too smart to pick Patrick, who, while it would be nice to have a liberal African American to counter Thomas, and frankly who I think would be a better SCOTUS judge than Governor, (or a better Senator for that matter), his tenure as AAG is incredibly controversial and his record as Governor would be scrutinized and over-played by the media. That and the negative reception he would get for abandoning us, even by his own supporters, would likely torpedo his quest. Remember Jesse Helms used polls showing that the people wanted Weld to stay put to dismiss his attempts at becoming Ambassador.
I predict the next justice will come up from the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals.