Boston’s 2013 municipal election was extraordinary not just as the first open Mayoral race in twenty years or the free-wheeling preliminaries, but because Marty Walsh and Michelle Wu secured victory with very unorthodox neighborhood coalitions.
Municipal campaign managers often speak of New Boston vs. Old Boston during elections. New Boston consists of communities of color and the group of progressive white neighborhoods (Jamaica Plain, South End, Back Bay, Beacon Hill) that usually vote with them. Old Boston refers to the ethnic white working class neighborhoods and more conservative middle-class white neighborhoods that also vote together, such as the South Boston, Charlestown, North End, Hyde Park, West Roxbury, etc. Over the decades a growing share of Boston’s population consists of people of color, however, leading to new possibilities for candidates of color and new political dynamics for all city-wide candidates.
Three of the four winning At-Large City Council candidates cruised to victory the traditional way. Compare these google maps I put together for voter percentages for Ayanna Pressley and Michael Flaherty:
% Votes for Ayanna Pressley, by Precinct (click for interactive google map)
% Votes for Michael Flaherty, by Precinct (click for interactive google map)
The map of Stephen Murphy’s precinct votes looks similar to Flaherty’s, and they are both mirror images of Pressley’s base. Pressley was elected by New Boston, Flaherty and Murphy by Old Boston.
The first surprise of the 2013 elections was that the Mayoral race was decided more along class lines than the traditional New vs. Old Boston alliances. South Boston went strongly for Walsh, breaking ranks from middle-class white neighborhoods like West Roxbury. High-income progressive white neighborhoods like Beacon Hill, Back Bay, and the South End backed Connolly, breaking ranks with communities of color. My neighborhood of Jamaica Plain, which looks like an extension of Roxbury on most electoral maps, was split exactly down the middle – 50% for Walsh, 50% for Connolly – and zooming in on my map of the Mayoral votes by precinct will show you that Connolly captured the higher-income whiter precincts in central western JP, while eastern JP, the Latin Quarter, and the Forest Hills neighborhoods went for Walsh:
% Gap in Mayoral Votes, By Precinct (click for interactive google map)
The final surprise was Michelle Wu’s rookie 2nd place finish, which she accomplished with an unusual geographic base. Wu cleaned up in progressive white neighborhoods like Jamaica Plain, South End, Back Bay, and Beacon Hill. In addition, her base extended to Fenway/Kenmore and Allston. However, aside from Chinatown and a few areas of Roxbury, she did not perform as well in communities of color. This is an unusual coalition of neighborhoods to line up behind the same candidate, and to pull it off Wu needed extraordinarily high turnout from all of them, which she got: more than 91 precincts gave Wu 20% or more of their votes (the precincts in the darkest green). To put that in perspective, Michael Flaherty and Stephen Murphy together had only 44 precincts deliver 20% or more votes:
% Votes for Michelle Wu, by Precinct (click for interactive google map)
As usual, the at-large candidates who did not make the cut had trouble breaking out of the neighborhoods they live or work in. Follow these links to pull up voting maps for any of the remaining candidates:
But first…
Ok, Bob. I’ll bite. What does Michelle Wu believe? Anyone?
Ben, good job showing how unusual this Mayoral election really was. This was an election that broke more along economic lines than traditional demographic lines. As you point out, Jamaica Plain was/is a microcosm of this new split. Really going to be an interesting four years to see how Marty holds it together.
While I would be the first to take issue with the idea we are living in a post-racial society, I do think race is mattering less to urban politics. De Blasio’s biracial family was an asset where it would’ve been a liability (in both white and black communities) just 10-15 years ago. Class, particularly in urban elections, is becoming a greater barometer of voting preferences. I hope in as cultural issues recede in the background, state and national elections will be determined in issues of economic fairness.
…I’m glad you acknowledged we have a ways to go. The DeBlasio ad was remarkable, but we’re not there yet. The poverty numbers as correlated to race remain surprising, even in Boston. Educational achievement, even advancement in our police and fire forces are linked to race. And all you have to do is read the comments sections of the Herald and even the Globe to see how far we have to go.
What I agree, though, is that there is the beginnings of an understanding that the low- and moderate-income white families of South may have more in common with low- and moderate-income families of Roxbury than they do with upper middle income white families of West Roxbury.
Just the beginnings, though. Let’s recognize that had it been Connolly v. Barros or Richie or Arroyo, the coalitions would have aligned very differently.