With a fundraising reporting deadline coming up on August 23, I wanted to fill BMG readers in on the Congressional race in NH-02, where Democrat Paul Hodes is attempting to knock off Charlie “Catch and Release” Bass. If you are so inclined, you may donate to Paul’s campaign at the netroots ActBlue page. [Or at the BMG Act Blue page! –ed.] [Sorry, should have mentioned that. What happened to the link? -DaveMB]
The last poll on the race from UNH was disappointing, giving Bass a 53-25 lead. This post, from a blogger named NH-02 Progressive, puts the most positive possible spin on the result. The poll shows that Hodes’ name recognition is still very bad, and that voters are not yet identifying Bass with Bush. Hence, Hodes needs money — he has a significant amount but needs DCCC help and a lot more donations.
Rahm Emmanuel just did a big fundraiser for Hodes in Boston and the people at Swing State Project are sounding a bit more excited about the race. Some netroots money may help keep the momentum going. If you are within driving distance of Keene and feel like canvassing, the Cheshire County Democrats are doing some there this Sunday.
Dana Houle, Hodes’ campaign manager is a sharp guy, very savvy and experienced. I’m sorry to hear they are struggling so. This is a perfect house seat for Kos to pay attention to….
Do a diary.
but I’ve never joined Kos — you want to put it up there for me?
who tells me the poll numbers are bogus. Let me figure out what’s going on and take it from there.
Are said to be “adults.” Not likley voters. Not even registered voters. I’d be very skeptical.
Looking over the pdf of the poll results, it does appear that the 53-25 number is “likely voters” who live in the 2nd CD. (See the last page of the document.) However, the number of likely voters polled – 209 – is relatively small. Moreover, since they apparently included a number of unregistered voters in their “likely voter” list, it’s not obvious how they decide who is a “likely voter” and who isn’t. Anyway….will look forward to hearing more about this poll, if more info is available.
They had 249 adults and 209 “likely voters”. That percentage is no way correct. If sampling and screen were accurate the % likely should be near the percent turnout of eligible voters (which is much less than the more commonly reported % turnout of registered voters).
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I’m not saying the numbers are good for Hodes — they’re not. I am saying that the poll deserves a decent size grain of salt.
showing Hodes trailing only by 43-42. (Note that this is an internal poll and thus subject to the usual caveats.)
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Here is a Swing State Project post with a link to the new poll and a comparison of the two.