Blue Mass Group

Obviously Nate Silver is imperfect, but his new Super Tuesday scenarios are worth looking at regardless of who you support. The Three Super Tuesday Scenarios are 1) Biden wins big (10% or more over Bernie), 2) Biden wins narrowly (under 10% difference with Bernie) or 3) Biden loses to Sanders (any % where Sanders beats Biden).

If Biden Wins Big*:

It’s a two man race, with Biden potentially having the advantage.

An outcome like the one in the table wouldn’t be a disaster for Sanders, by any means. He’d still be projected to end up with 578 delegates, on average after Super Tuesday, counting both delegates won before Super Tuesday and on Super Tuesday itself. In other words, Sanders would still pick up 39 percent of the total delegates awarded so far. Biden would be next with 430 delegates (29 percent), with Michael Bloombeg in third with 200 delegates (13 percent).

But you can also see how momentum could start to turn against Sanders. By “momentum,” I don’t mean something ineffable, but rather the shifts in the polls that could occur as the result of Super Tuesday, as well as decisions by other candidates to stay in the race or drop out.1
In the scenario above — after a big South Carolina win — Biden would be the plurality favorite in every Southern state on Super Tuesday, namely: Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas. While Sanders would remain the favorite in every non-Southern state2 except Minnesota3 including — critically — California, where he has a huge polling lead and where 415 pledged delegates are at stake.

If Biden wins narrowly

Rather than trailing Sanders by about 150 delegates after Super Tuesday as in the first scenario, Biden would trail by around 260 delegates in this one. And Sanders would remain the favorite — although a narrow favorite — in Texas, North Carolina and Virginia, instead of having become an underdog in those states. Furthermore, the combined moderate lane delegate counts would longer exceed the progressive lane counts (Sanders and Warren together would have 52 percent of delegates to the moderates’ 47 percent), depriving Biden of that talking point.

What this leads to, most likely: Biden would be viable, but he would need some other breaks, namely (i) the other moderates to drop out and (ii) a really strong performance in the remaining March contests. And his goal would probably be to secure a plurality of delegates — or to at least get to a contested convention — with a majority being more of a long shot.

If Bernie beats Biden

If you like Bernie, and/or want to avoid a contested convention, you should be hoping for a Bernie upset in South Carolina. According to Silver, it would essentially end the primary.

After winning South Carolina, Sanders would be projected to end up with just slightly more than half of all the pledged delegates after Super Tuesday. Moreover, there would be no clear alternative to him.

Anyway these are worth looking at to make informed commentary. If I were Biden, I would be making calls and job offers to Amy, Pete, and Warren to drop out. Biden selecting Warren as a surprise VP might be his best strategy to blunt Bernie’s momentum and stick a nail in the coffin for Bloomberg. If I were Bloomberg, I would honestly ask myself am I in this for the nomination or to stop Bernie? The former is unlikely at this point, the latter still doable but would require coordinating with the other campaigns. All in all, this is why I am convinced Sanders will win. His opposition remains fractured and it is not coalescing in time behind an alternative nominee. It should coalesce around Biden, and his supporters are right to feel angered by Bloombergs late entry and the continued presence of Amy and Pete. They should be happy Warren is still in it to deny Sanders a monopoly on the progressive lane. They should also push to have him put her on the ticket.

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Many years ago, I had the opportunity to race against a US Olympic athlete Phil Mahre at a local ski area.  It’s a long story but suffice it to say that out of the amateurs, I finished in second place with a time of 1:40. First place was 1:39.  I was a good skier and had won a couple medals in local races, one bronze, one silver.  Phil Mahre’s time? 1:30.  He had beaten me by ten seconds, an eternity in ski racing.  He’s two years younger than me, one inch shorter and while I was on the slopes, many people thought I was Phil, or his twin brother,Steve.  We had the same ski jackets, same skis, and he beat my time by 10 seconds.

I can accept that. He was a world class skier, an Olympian, probably skied more in one year than I did in my lifetime.  He had coaches, massage therapists, the works.  Me?  I was working full time selling Toyota cars and getting in a day or two each week on the slopes.  While humbling, a 10 second beating was understandable.

Today, I am 65 years old, been working pretty much since I was 16. I worked through my last two years of high school, took a year off between high school and college to make a few bucks, then worked through college.  After college many of my jobs required 60 hour work weeks.  Several of my jobs made the “10 most Dangerous Jobs in the USA” list.  Today my net worth is about $600,000 and I can honestly say that I’ve earned much of it.  I had some good breaks.   Being born a healthy white male with an above average IQ into a stable family and a supportive community was a great start.  Let’s say I was born on first base with a good lead on second. I admit that.

How did Bloomberg “earn” $60 Billion?

I have an IQ of 130.  According to all of my physicals over the years, I am in excellent physical shape.  Even today I can run an 8 minute mile.

How did Bloomberg “earn” $60 Billion?  He must be Superman!

To put in into perspective, years ago at the ski slope, Phil Mahre would have had to ski faster than the speed of light to beat me as much as Bloomberg has. He would have finished the race course in 18 ten thousands of a second.  Before the sound of the start bell at the top of the hill reached those at the finish line, Phil would be done with the course and taking off his skis.

We’d all stare and wonder:  How did he do this?  This is not possible, but there he is.  In the end, unless somehow laws of physics were tossed out the window, we would discover that clearly, something is awry.  The race was rigged. We’d been fooled.  No one is that fast.

How did Bloomberg “earn” $60 Billion?

Clearly, he did not.  Of course he worked for some of it.  Of course he took chances, but to quote George Monbiot, If wealth was the inevitable result of hard work and enterprise, every woman in Africa would be a millionaire.  

Bloomberg took $60 Billion.

The system is rigged.  Men like Bloomberg rig it, or at the very least, expect us to believe that they have “earned” their wealth and that our relative poverty is the result of our lack of hard work and enterprise.

Mike Bloomberg has no place in the Democratic Party.

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Both Warren and Biden have the selflessness and patriotism to drop out and endorse whoever is doing better. Thank God.

The rest will fall away.

I voted for Bernie four years ago. This time I’m desperately hoping he doesn’t make it because the terrible forces will be too easily able to scare people this year. And unlike last time, this time the intelligence community has told us precisely how this scare and disinformation campaign is to be accomplished.

Yet if the moment were to come that it were to appear like he’d be the best against Trump in the FALL (consistently and for at least a complete month or two), I’d gladly support him.

Absent some drastic change in the national zeitgeist such that Bernie became the overwhelming favorite…

*****IN ALL THE KEY STATES*****

…I have to follow my conscience about the best way to defend this nation from the danger at 1600.

It may not appear that way now, but because the other candidates will have the wisdom to drop out, Biden will win more than half the delegates fair and square at the convention. and be the nominee.

Then Biden will win in the Fall.

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March is a huge month for Congressional Democratic primaries between progressive women challengers and conservative men incumbents in Safe Blue districts where we should see strongly progressive representation but currently do not. Support these women!

On March 3, in Texas’ 28th Congressional district, anti-choice, anti-woman conservative Henry Cuellar faces progressive human rights attorney Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar has the support of the NRA, the Koch network, Big Oil, and the immigration prison industry. He fundraised for a vulnerable Republican last cycle. He’s being sued for wrongfully firing his Deputy Chief of Staff for being pregnant. He has one of the most conservative voting records and one of the worst Progressive Punch scores. Cisneros has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie and Julián Castro and Ayanna and AOC and many members of the progressive coalition including choice and environmental groups. DONATE to Cisneros, Like her on Facebook, Follow her on Twitter, and visit her website.

Also on March 3, in California’s 16th Congressional district, conservative Blue Dog leader Jim Costa faces progressive attorney & Fresno City Councilwoman Esmeralda Soria. The anachronistic Costa has been in elected office for 40 years, has served as a co-Chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, and is predisposed to always support corporate special interests over the public interest. As a result, he has the House Democratic caucus’ third worst Progressive Punch score. Soria has the support of a very long list of local officials, as well as the iconic Dolores Huerta, local progressive organizations, and local organized labor. DONATE to Soria, Like her on Facebook, Follow her on Twitter, and visit her website.

On March 17, in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional district, anti-choice, anti-woman conservative Dan Lipinski faces progressive entrepreneur Marie Newman. Lipinski has had a defiantly terrible voting record (anti-Obamacare, anti-DREAM Act, anti-choice, anti-LGBTQ equality) for a Democrat holding a safe Democratic seat, a seat he controversially inherited from his father. Lipinski (again, of Illinois) wouldn’t even endorse President Obama for re-election in 2012 against Mitt Romney! And Lipinski supports anti-choice efforts that fundraise to give control of the House back to Republicans. Lipinski has served as a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition AND as a co-chair of the Congressional Pro-Life Caucus, giving the latter group its last bit of bipartisan cred. Like Jessica Cisneros, Newman has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie and Julián Castro and Ayanna and AOC and many members of the progressive coalition including choice and environmental groups. DONATE to Newman, Like her on Facebook, Follow her on Twitter, and visit her website.

Make our House Democratic caucus more authentically Democratic-er! Support these progressive women challengers against conservative men incumbents in Safe Blue districts and spread the word (like sharing this post on your social media) to encourage your networks to do likewise in these final weeks of their primaries!

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