So Healey will go negative: hard, broadly, unrelentingly. She will throw everything she has against Patrick and hope something sticks. This carries risks for her: I think the data will show that she is not yet a deeply popular figure in … [Read more...]
‘Twas the night before voting…
No, this won't be a poem. But I have always found Election Day to be as exciting as Christmas Eve is for children waiting for Santa. And I wanted to share the building excitement with you fine people.One of the truly still great things … [Read more...]
Beginning to think about predictions
O'Brien 33%Birmingham 24Reich 25Tolman 18I don't want to oversimplify, and I know y'all will tell me six ways that I have, but it's striking to me that Reich and Tolman together got 43% (actually 42.5% before … [Read more...]
The Globe poll’s real story
I think it's very bad news for Reilly. It's actually surprising his horserace number is as good as it is, given these internals. He's liked by about the same percentage of voters as the other two, disliked by considerably more (24R, 14G, … [Read more...]
Patrick has more explaining to do
The Red Sox are very important to Massachusetts voters. But Deval Patrick has not fully explained his own baseball past.While he talks no end about growing up on the south side of Chicago, Patrick has been stangely silent about his baseball … [Read more...]
Has Deval drunk the Kool Aid?
Sure, he continues to do local events and fundraisers. Yes, his minions continue to go door-to-door and hand out pledge cards. I imagine the number of IDed voters on his web tool continues to grow.But I bet I'm not the only DP supporter … [Read more...]
Taxes are not a talismanic issue
Do many people care about taxes, at least a little? No question. Is there a significant slice of Massachusetts voters who are very inclined to vote for the candidate whom they believe will do more to lower taxes? Yes.But it's not the whole … [Read more...]
Politics ain’t beanbag.
Yes, Patrick was trying to squash Gabrieli and Reilly like bugs, and maybe even challenged some delegates as part of that effort.Yes, Gabrieli was trying desperately to get enough votes to crack the 15% barrier, and maybe even spoke … [Read more...]
Patrick is a wealthy, generous tax-payer
Deval Patrick disclosed today that he had $3.8 million in income in 2005.He gave $300,000 to charity and paid $1.5 million in taxes.Hey, Frank Phillips, seems that Patrick can pay those monthly mortgage bills without too much difficulty, … [Read more...]
Conventional Wisdom : Gubernatorial Prediction
So what do you say, fellow junkies?My guess is "60-65%." … [Read more...]